My portfolio was up 51% YTD, driven almost entirely by concentrated tech positions. I wrote that investing my real estate money into index funds would have “undoubtedly done better,” and that I “probably wouldn’t invest in future real estate deals” given the long hold times and modest returns.

My friend Shane Fuhrman, an investor and hospitality operator at Selwyn Capital, read that report and pushed back. His response was one of the most thoughtful defenses of real estate I’ve received, so I wanted to share it here.

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Hi Nick,

I really appreciate you sharing your thoughts so openly. You make valid points, and many investors share your view. Real estate can feel slow and illiquid, especially when compared to public markets that show results instantly and fluctuate constantly.

I remain confident about real estate because its real compounding happens quietly. Equity builds through debt paydown and appreciation, even if that growth is not visible until a refinancing or sale. Illiquidity, while uncomfortable, is often what creates discipline and keeps capital compounding when public markets fluctuate.

Real estate also serves as one of the few true long-term hedges against inflation. Replacement costs rise, land stays scarce, and quality assets maintain purchasing power when other markets lose ground. Over long periods, real estate has consistently outperformed equities on a risk-adjusted basis because it moves through patient, durable cycles rather than emotional ones.

It is true that the past few years made real estate difficult, but that window does not define the asset class. When rates normalize, the value in well-positioned assets will become clear again.

It is possible to make much higher returns in actively managed equities, but that comes with more volatility. I also find exponential value in the hospitality businesses that our properties support. I enjoy directing my time, energy, and capital into ventures I care about that also generate strong returns, rather than focusing only on what might produce the highest financial outcome.

For me, real estate remains one of the best ways to balance wealth creation and preservation. It compounds quietly, rewards patience, and connects capital to something tangible and lasting.

If your strategy is working well for you, I would encourage you to keep going with it. I only wanted to share how I think about real estate and why it remains such a meaningful part of how I approach investing.

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One line that stuck with me: “Illiquidity, while uncomfortable, is often what creates discipline.”

That’s a perspective I hadn’t fully considered. When your capital is locked up, you can’t panic-sell. That forced patience can be a feature.

The timing of Shane’s email feels relevant. Since I published that November report, my tech-heavy portfolio has given back a meaningful chunk of those gains. It’s a good reminder that concentration works both ways, and that the quiet, steady compounding Shane describes has good value.

I still lean toward my current strategy, and as of today, I’m deep-and-dirty with an 87% stocks allocation.

But I respect the argument. Shane’s framing gave me something to sit with, and I think it’s worth sharing with anyone else weighing the same tradeoffs between liquid and illiquid assets.

• Stocks: 87%
• Real estate: 6%
• Cash: 5%
• Credit, PE, Other: 2%

As a percentage of total asset allocation, several technology names continue to dominate my portfolio:

• Cloudflare: 36%
• Tesla: 8%
• Amazon: 7%
• Google: 6%

Having almost 60% of my net worth in only four companies, and over ⅓ of my entire net worth in just one company, is best described as “risky” and “unwell.” However, I have not learned my lesson just yet.

I’m sitting on more cash than I’d like but am unsure where to deploy it. For now it is in a money market fund (FZDXX) generating 3.94%.

Trimming Some Stocks

I almost never sell my stocks. But I trimmed 25% of a single name in my portfolio in October that is not listed above.

The company, like many others in my basket, is at an all-time high. And my gains on it are astronomical.

So, for the first time in years, I sold a technology stock.

I’m sure the stock will continue to climb. It always does after I sell 🤣

Editor’s note: It has risen 8% since I sold.

As I enter this next phase of my life and want to have kids soon, I think I might be a bit less aggressive in my approach to investing. And while I love and respect each of my major holdings, having more index funds is probably a safer bet going forward.

As such, I will probably redeploy these gains and dollar cost average into a Vanguard index fund soon.

Prenups and Real Estate

I recently did a prenuptial agreement. Part of that process involved documenting and valuing all of my assets.

The hardest part was figuring out how much my real estate assets are worth. I mostly carry them at my basis on these asset allocation reports.

But prenups aka premarital agreements are a little different. They incentivise one to be more accurate in reporting.

So I reached out to the principals of a few of my holdings to get better fair market value estimates. While they were all reluctant to give firm figures, I was happy to see some conservative markups.

Future Real Estate Investments

The valuation considerations for my prenup made me wonder: would I continue to invest in real estate?

If an interesting deal came my way from a trusted partner, would I write the check?

Only one of my real estate investments has had a refinancing event that allowed me to get my principal back (the cold storage warehouse in New Jersey). The others have had a few distributions, which is nice. But my money has been locked up for years with little to show on my books as I carry them at my basis.

While I expect they will each eventually perform well, the lack of liquidity and reliance on interest rates for success makes investing in real estate a difficult exercise for an entrepreneur and stock picker like myself. I would have undoubtedly done better to invest all of my real estate money into index funds.

But I made these investments in a different time, mostly in 2020-2023, when interest rates were much lower and I had a lot of cash sitting idle. Real estate seemed a better investment than money market funds, and I felt like I was already over-exposed to stocks. Plus, I liked the idea of owning a hard asset investment – in this case, industrial warehouses and Colorado hotels.

Today, I still don’t understand how to calculate a cap rate. And I probably won’t get my principal back for several more years. So I’ll probably stick to index funds regarding any future cash deployments

Unless, of course, something extremely interesting from someone that I trust comes across my phone during a moment of greed or weakness.

Potential IRR for a Real Estate Fund

There is one real estate fund that I invested in January 2020. It was my first major real estate investment and I really liked the thesis.

I talked about it to a friend in Tiger 21, a high net worth mastermind group that I was in. My friend liked the sound of the fund and invested himself.

He recently reached out to the team at this fund with a simple question:

What net IRR range do you expect when the investment fully harvests?

And the firm did some research and wrote back to him:

Based on your funding date of XXX, 2020 and using the midpoint of the expected distributions included in the letter through 2029, it would be ~12.3% IRR. The variance could still be meaningful from here — this assumes XXX and XXX growth of 3~4% annually, so if the shortage of XXX (core thesis) continues to play out as it has for the past decade, it could be higher (each +1% of XXX is roughly +3% of IRR).

Conversely, if the debt environment changes meaningfully over the next few years (favorably or unfavorably), it could alter the timing of the return of funds and, consequently, the IRR. Obviously many people think rates are headed down — which of course would be very welcome and could really benefit IRR! — but having lived through the recent historic rise in rates, we know that anything can happen and the best thing we can do is be prepared for a range of outcomes.

Now, I won’t comment on my friend’s reaction to that IRR.

But I’ll say that I would be happy with 12%. It is certainly better than keeping the cash sitting on the side.

But does that type of return keep up with inflation?

And does it account for having had our money locked up for nine years with an unknown liquidity horizon?

And does it let me sleep safe at night with the uncertainty of returns, the possibility of additional capital calls, or having so much reliance on interest rates?

I’m not sure.

But it further strengthens my position that I probably wouldn’t invest in future real estate deals knowing the long hold times that real estate investors can be subjected to. I’m at about 6% of my total portfolio in real estate, and that feels fine to me. At least until my wife wants to buy a house.

Conclusion

We’re at all time highs now. It looks like one of my technology bets is paying off, and I still love the company.

I should spend more time thinking about my investments and my asset allocation.

But my general strategy of “buy and hold technology stocks, and rarely sell” seems to be working out well for now.

I have an interview with the founder of one of my real estate investments coming soon. We toured a piece of land in Montana that I have a small ownership stake in. Follow me on X for future posts, or sign up for my Friends Newsletter.

I almost reached a silly significant number on that day. It felt euphoric. I was a genius!

But maybe that was simply Cupid tickling my little heart.

“The market giveth and the market taketh away. Amen.”

Since those mid-February highs in tech stocks, I’ve seen significant sell-offs in my basket. My total assets dropped considerably from that high-water mark, and bigly on certain days.

Warren Buffett has said that “the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

I am extremely patient, perhaps to a fault, with my largest holdings. I believe them to be quality companies with growth potential. Time will tell.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Asset Allocation

84% stocks,
8% real estate,
5% cash,
3% other.

Disclaimer: My asset allocation is extremely risky. But I’m unmarried, with no kids, so… yeah. I share this information publicly to encourage others to do the same. This is not investment advice.

Notes

A few random items of interest:

• Last update I mentioned that I wanted to divest some of my $VEA. I did not. It was down, and now it is up again. I don’t know what to do. Like most of my holdings, I generally benefit from not doing anything. So I continue to hold it.
• The commercial property investment in Montana from my last update did not pan out. I tried my best, but alas.
• Cash is generating 4.13% in a money market account.
• My numbers not fully accurate. I carry real estate at my basis, and an equity fund that I have 6% of my net worth in reports late and is not updated here.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Stocks

Largest holdings as a percentage of total assets:

• 26% $NET — Cloudflare
• 8% $AMZN — Amazon
• 7% $TSLA — Tesla
• 5% $VEA — Vanguard Developed Markets ETF
• 5% $GOOG — Google
• 4% $PLTR — Palantir
• 4% $IVV — S&P 500 ETF
• 3% $BRK.B — Berkshire Hathaway

See the Investing page for more. Or past asset allocations.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Real Estate

Here’s a quick stab at updates on four of my investments:

Hotel in Colorado: significant occupancy increase compared to the same period last year. Year-over-year, NOI improved considerably. Healthy cash position.

Motel in Colorado: strong performance with improved guest satisfaction. Significant net profit increase. Some upcoming maintenance required.

Warehouse in Wyoming: Operations are smooth. The asset is stabilized and rent revenue doubled with successful renewals at market rates. Perhaps my second-best real estate asset, after the cold storage facility in New Jersey. One small tenant vacated with negligible impact on cash flows.

Land in Montana: Will roll this into workforce-focused housing development on the land that was acquired in 2022. Conservative projections show a 15.86% IRR, but I’m carrying it at my basis. First completed units anticipated in Fall 2026.

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THE END

See my Investments page for more information and interesting articles on my personal site.

83% stocks,
9% real estate,
5% cash,
3% other.

Stocks

Largest holdings as a percentage of total assets:

• 23% $NET — Cloudflare
• 9% $TSLA — Tesla
• 9% $AMZN — Amazon
• 5% $GOOG — Google
• 5% $VEA — Vanguard Developed Markets ETF
• 4% $IVV — S&P 500 ETF

See the Investing page for more. Or past asset allocations.

Real Estate

Some paid first dividends recently. No changes otherwise.

I will stop breaking the properties out in individual reports for now as they don’t change often. See the Investments page for current real estate holdings.

Notes

• I want to divest some of my $VEA but unsure when.
• I’m preparing to make my first new real estate investment since 2022. It will be for a commercial property in Montana.
• I still carry all real estate at my basis. But I think it is all doing well.
• Whole number percentages are rounded up or down.
• Cash is generating 4.45% in a money market account.
• One equity fund that I’m in reports quarterly, so my numbers not fully accurate.
• I still do not own any crypto.
• I share this publicly to encourage others to do the same.
• This is not investment advice. My asset allocation is extremely risky. But I’m unmarried, with no kids, so YOLO.

THE END
THE END
THE END

Previously: September 2024 Asset Allocation

Including as a percentage of total:

• $NET 19%
• $AMZN 8%
• $TSLA 7%
• $GOOG 6%
• $VEA 5%

Stocks are mostly tech with the largest positions listed above. Plus index-adjacent such as $VTI, $IVV, $QQQ, $BRKB.

All stocks are self-managed except a bit at Saber Capital and another place.

Notes

• Real estate assets are conservatively valued at my basis.
• Many numbers rounded down.
• I do not do angel investing, VC, or crypto.

• $AMZN is now 10% of my entire net worth
• I was surprised to see Amazon stock is up almost 70% in the last 1Y
• I rent the home I live in. Most of my real estate is commercial – some hotels and industrial properties
• 42% of my entire net worth is invested in 4 public tech stocks
• I do not recommend this investment strategy unless you are an idiot like me with an unhealthy addiction for risk and naiveté

Notes on Cash

My cash position has increased & is currently generating 5% on money market.

I’m not sure how to deploy it.

A big deal recently fell through and I’m happy to sit on the cash for a bit. But I should probably just buy Vanguard index funds.

Asset Allocation

82% stocks,
11% real estate,
7% cash and other.

Including as a percentage of total:

* $NET 19%
* $AMZN 10%
* $GOOG 7%
* $TSLA 6%
* $VEA 6%

Stocks are mostly tech with the largest positions listed above. And then index-adjacent such as $VTI, $IVV, $QQQ, $BRKB. All stocks are self-managed except a bit at Saber Capital and another place.

Real estate includes significant pieces of:

• 15-room hotel in Colorado
• 40-room motel in Colorado
• 14 acres commercial land Montana
• 33k sq ft industrial in Montana
• 80k sq ft industrial in New Jersey
• single-family homes with SFR3

Real estate assets are conservatively valued, usually at my basis. Some numbers rounded.

I still do not do angel investing, VC, or crypto.

Not much has changed over the past few months.

42% of my entire net worth is invested in 4 public tech stocks.

I do not recommend this investment strategy unless you are an idiot like me with an unhealthy appetite or addiction for risk.

Not much new. My real estate investments seem to be doing well but I continue to carry them at or near my basis on the books.

I did some opportunistic stock buys and trades in May 2023 representing around 3% of my portfolio. Those have performed very well.

Otherwise I am mostly just holding tight.

Cash is more than I want to have but happy to sit on it at 5% yields.

Totals 102% due to an outstanding loan that I’ll resolve soon.

including as a pctg of total:
* $NET 17%
* $TSLA 8%
* $AMZN 8%
* $VEA 7%
* $GOOG 6%

Stocks are mostly tech (largest listed above) and then index-adjacent such as $IVV, $QQQ, $BRKB. I have very small holdings of $FB and $PLTR. All self-managed except a bit at Saber Capital, Betterment, and another place.

Real estate includes pieces of:
* 15-room hotel in Colorado
* 40-room motel in Colorado
* 14 acres commercial land Montana
* 33k sq ft industrial in Montana
* 80k sq ft industrial in New Jersey
* single-family homes with SFR3

As of 2023-05-11, there exists a loan representing 5% of total assets.

Some numbers rounded or manually adjusted.

Including as a percentage of total:
* $NET 20%
* $TSLA 12%
* $AMZN 9%
* $GOOG 6%

Stocks are approx 60% tech (largest listed above) and then index or index-adjacent at Saber Capital, $VEA, $QQQ, etc.

Real estate includes small pieces of:

• 14 acres commercial land Montana
• 15-room hotel in Colorado
• 40-room motel in Colorado
• 80k sq ft industrial in New Jersey
• multi-family apartments in Kentucky
• multi-family apartments in Los Angeles
• 2BR apartment in Hawaii
• 1BR apartment in Budapest
• 1BR apartment in Tokyo
• small island near Halifax, Canada

As of 2022-08-08, there exists a margin loan representing 7% of total assets.

Portfolio allocation does not include assets under 2% and some numbers rounded or manually adjusted.

Largest tech holdings are NET (17%), TSLA (12%) 😬, AMZN (9%), and GOOG (6%).

Largest tech holdings are NET, TSLA 😬, AMZN, and GOOG.

Some index at Saber Capital.

Real estate investments at SFR3 and Stro.

Plus:

• 11% private equity
• 5% fixed income
• 6% real estate
• 1% cash

Largest tech holdings are TSLA 😬, AMZN, NET, and GOOG.

Some index at Saber Capital and Bessemer Trust.

Real estate investments at SFR3 and Stro.